MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2425Lower is better
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate49.55%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate57.71%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate56.81%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate51.36%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6087Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2426Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2470Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate52.63%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches551Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 321-330 of 551 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
04-03-26England - Premier LeagueNewcastle vs Man UnitedO/U 2.5
Over 2.563.65%
Over 2.52-1
HITHigh82/100
04-03-26England - Premier LeagueMan City vs Nott'm Forest1X2
Home88.07%
Draw2-2
MISSHigh90/100
04-03-26England - Premier LeagueFulham vs West Ham1X2
Home51.02%
Away0-1
MISSHigh75/100
04-03-26England - Premier LeagueBrighton vs Arsenal1X2
Away65.86%
Away0-1
HITHigh85/100
04-03-26England - Premier LeagueAston Villa vs ChelseaBTS
BTS Yes59.39%
BTS Yes1-4
HITLow24/100
03-03-26Scotland - Premier LeagueDundee United vs St Mirren1X2
Draw43.54%
Home2-1
MISSMedium53/100
03-03-26England - Premier LeagueWolves vs Liverpool1X2
Away78.19%
Home2-1
MISSHigh90/100
03-03-26England - Premier LeagueLeeds vs SunderlandO/U 2.5
Under 2.567.24%
Under 2.50-1
HITLow28/100
03-03-26England - Premier LeagueEverton vs Burnley1X2
Home50.72%
Home2-0
HITHigh77/100
03-03-26England - Premier LeagueBournemouth vs BrentfordBTS
BTS Yes56.60%
BTS No0-0
MISSLow23/100
04-03-26England - Premier League

Newcastle vs Man United

O/U 2.5
PredictedOver 2.563.65%
ActualOver 2.52-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh82/100
04-03-26England - Premier League

Man City vs Nott'm Forest

1X2
PredictedHome88.07%
ActualDraw2-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh90/100
04-03-26England - Premier League

Fulham vs West Ham

1X2
PredictedHome51.02%
ActualAway0-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh75/100
04-03-26England - Premier League

Brighton vs Arsenal

1X2
PredictedAway65.86%
ActualAway0-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh85/100
04-03-26England - Premier League

Aston Villa vs Chelsea

BTS
PredictedBTS Yes59.39%
ActualBTS Yes1-4
ResultHIT
ConfidenceLow24/100
03-03-26Scotland - Premier League

Dundee United vs St Mirren

1X2
PredictedDraw43.54%
ActualHome2-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium53/100
03-03-26England - Premier League

Wolves vs Liverpool

1X2
PredictedAway78.19%
ActualHome2-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh90/100
03-03-26England - Premier League

Leeds vs Sunderland

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.567.24%
ActualUnder 2.50-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceLow28/100
03-03-26England - Premier League

Everton vs Burnley

1X2
PredictedHome50.72%
ActualHome2-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh77/100
03-03-26England - Premier League

Bournemouth vs Brentford

BTS
PredictedBTS Yes56.60%
ActualBTS No0-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceLow23/100
Showing 321-330 of 551 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.