MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team Pool2025-2026

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate54.26%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability62.87%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2421Lower is better
Confidence Success56.67%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate46.25%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate56.85%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate56.59%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate51.42%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6186Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2452Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2455Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate55.30%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches387Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate54.26%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability62.87%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success56.67%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 251-260 of 387 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
27-02-26England - ChampionshipBristol City vs Watford1X2
Home45.81%
Away1-2
MISSMedium66/100
27-02-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionLevante vs AlavesO/U 2.5
Under 2.558.99%
Under 2.52-0
HITMedium48/100
27-02-26Italy - Serie AParma vs CagliariO/U 2.5
Under 2.560.45%
Under 2.51-1
HITLow32/100
27-02-26Germany - Bundesliga 1Augsburg vs FC Koln1X2
Home46.44%
Home2-0
HITMedium63/100
27-02-26France - Ligue 1Strasbourg vs Lens1X2
Away46.32%
Draw1-1
MISSMedium62/100
27-02-26England - Premier LeagueWolves vs Aston Villa1X2
Away57.90%
Home2-0
MISSHigh84/100
25-02-26England - ChampionshipStoke vs OxfordBTS
BTS No66.08%
BTS Yes2-1
MISSLow23/100
25-02-26England - ChampionshipSheffield United vs Coventry1X2
Home50.18%
Away1-2
MISSHigh79/100
25-02-26England - ChampionshipNorwich vs Sheffield Weds1X2
Home65.76%
Home2-0
HITHigh83/100
25-02-26England - ChampionshipMillwall vs Birmingham1X2
Home51.37%
Home3-0
HITHigh76/100
Showing 251-260 of 387 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.

Responsible Use | About MatchProb | FAQ