MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team Pool2025-2026

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate54.26%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability62.87%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2421Lower is better
Confidence Success56.67%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate46.25%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate56.85%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate56.59%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate51.42%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6186Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2452Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2455Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate55.30%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches387Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate54.26%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability62.87%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success56.67%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 361-370 of 387 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
16-02-26England - ChampionshipCoventry vs MiddlesbroughBTS
BTS Yes65.76%
BTS Yes3-1
HITLow25/100
16-02-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionGirona vs Barcelona1X2
Away85.25%
Home2-1
MISSHigh93/100
16-02-26Italy - Serie ACagliari vs LecceBTS
BTS No61.31%
BTS No0-2
HITHigh72/100
15-02-26Portugal - Liga ISp Lisbon vs Famalicao1X2
Home92.43%
Home1-0
HITHigh90/100
15-02-26Portugal - Liga IAVS vs Estoril1X2
Away68.80%
Home3-0
MISSHigh87/100
15-02-26Portugal - Liga INacional vs Porto1X2
Away81.51%
Away0-1
HITHigh90/100
15-02-26Netherlands - EredivisieTelstar vs Twente1X2
Away69.93%
Draw1-1
MISSHigh86/100
15-02-26Netherlands - EredivisieHeerenveen vs Zwolle1X2
Home53.43%
Home4-2
HITHigh76/100
15-02-26Netherlands - EredivisieFeyenoord vs Go Ahead Eagles1X2
Home81.13%
Home1-0
HITHigh89/100
15-02-26Scotland - Premier LeagueRangers vs Hearts1X2
Home66.81%
Home4-2
HITHigh81/100
Showing 361-370 of 387 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.

Responsible Use | About MatchProb | FAQ