MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team Pool2025-2026

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate54.26%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability62.87%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2421Lower is better
Confidence Success56.67%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate46.25%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate56.85%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate56.59%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate51.42%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6186Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2452Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2455Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate55.30%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches387Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate54.26%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability62.87%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success56.67%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 31-40 of 387 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
15-03-26England - Premier LeagueCrystal Palace vs Leeds1X2
Home54.18%
Draw0-0
MISSHigh76/100
14-03-26Portugal - Liga IArouca vs Benfica1X2
Away87.33%
Away1-2
HITHigh91/100
14-03-26Portugal - Liga IGil Vicente vs Alverca1X2
Home58.33%
Draw2-2
MISSHigh79/100
14-03-26Portugal - Liga IGuimaraes vs Famalicao1X2
Home47.95%
Away1-2
MISSMedium69/100
14-03-26Netherlands - EredivisieAjax vs Sparta Rotterdam1X2
Home66.84%
Home4-0
HITHigh83/100
14-03-26Netherlands - EredivisieHeerenveen vs TelstarBTS
BTS Yes58.18%
BTS No3-0
MISSLow43/100
14-03-26Netherlands - EredivisiePSV Eindhoven vs Nijmegen1X2
Home79.51%
Away2-3
MISSHigh89/100
14-03-26Netherlands - EredivisieVolendam vs For SittardBTS
BTS Yes59.73%
BTS Yes1-2
HITLow41/100
14-03-26Scotland - Premier LeagueKilmarnock vs Hearts1X2
Away50.12%
Home1-0
MISSHigh77/100
14-03-26Scotland - Premier LeagueHibernian vs Livingston1X2
Home79.52%
Draw0-0
MISSHigh89/100
Showing 31-40 of 387 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.

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